Smarkets Could Mull Reentering US, Bring Prediction Market With It
- 17 Jul 2025
- Gambling News
One of the biggest prediction market operators in the world, Smarkets, is expressing interest in getting back into the US sports betting market. It may eventually bring an event contracts product with it.
In a recent study, Jordan Bender, an equity research analyst for Citizens, notes that Smarkets has returned to Indiana, where its online sportsbook has reported a $2 million transaction so far this year. Following the Supreme Court's 2018 decision on the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), the London-based company was one of many that migrated to the US. Additionally, it was one of the operators who felt that the US market was too expensive and that it was hard to compete with the DraftKing/FanDuel duopoly.
"The catalysts for investing and reentering into the US were led by the rationalization of market access fees compared to expensive agreements signed during the early days of the industry,” notes Bender.
The US sports betting market is still in its infancy in its regulated, post-PAPSA state, but it has a sizable graveyard. Smarkets seems to be the first instance of an attempted Lazarus act, as Bender notes.
Smarkets May One Day Participate in US Prediction Markets
Established in 2008 by Jason Trost and Hunter Morris, Smarkets is a prominent betting exchange and prediction markets provider in both its native country and throughout Europe.
Although Smarkets is taking a practical stance, it has the skills and understanding of competitive environments to possibly be a respectable prediction markets competitor in the US, as seen by its competition with Flutter Entertainment's (NYSE: FLUT) Betfair platform, among others, across the pond.
“For the betting exchange/predictions, Mr. Trost and the company are in a wait-and-see mode around the legality of the product in the US, yet it is currently going through the process of obtaining a betting exchange license, which can take one to two years,” observes Bender. “In the event prediction markets are permitted under Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) guidelines, we expect to see a push into the product through the Smarkets brand.”
If it expands its prediction market offering to the US, the company's sportsbook division, known as SBK, may surpass its exchange platform in growth. However, given that certain businesses are already making a name for themselves as local leaders in prediction markets, it might find the going no easier than what it faced with sports betting in this nation.
The Tech Stack at Smarkets Is Amazing
Though it seems the company intends to compete rather than sell, Smarkets has one of the few internally owned technology stacks in the betting exchange industry, which would be appealing to a potential acquirer.
"Naturally, we think that would provide non-exchange operators incremental value if acquired for top online companies in the space, given the time and money needed to develop the technology and become licensed as an exchange,” adds Bender. “The CEO said there is always a price for anything, but he looks to compete against the top online companies in the space if given the opportunity and the expertise of the company.”
Deutsche Telekom Investments, Eberg Capital, Passion Capital, and Susquehanna Growth Equity are among the private investors in Smarkets. The Susquehanna International Group, a market maker for the massive event contracts company Kalshi, includes Susquehanna Growth Equity.
